The following is the OptionBT sighting of
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Position Description   :
Position taken   :     August 11,2003
Sixteen Months out,
Time only call spread for Debit,
No Margin required,
Short side out of the money by 120 points on Close on Day of the Trade
Dec 17,2004 / Settlement = ???
Credit or (Debit)   :
None. (both options on the same strike, different months)
Net = (best guess is +$300,000 (if Dec 04 SPX settlement at 1100)
Comments   :   "Time Meister"
A "Time Meister" spotting is an important event. One reason is that they are rare.
One reason that they are rare is that "time only" spreads are
challenging and not everyone wants to
do them. The second reason is that they are good indicators of market direction.
If you believe that the "calendar spread meisters" are better than the rest of us
meerkats, then pay special attention to these skillful traders.
"T.M." puts his position out in front of the SPX. Note that on the
day of the trade the SPX closed around 980. His strikes are at 1100. The
SPX must climb in order to satisfy his goals. "T.M." gives himself almost sixteen months
for this to happen. There is no "set it and forget it" here.
You do not want to leave the two sides of the spread to expire on their own.
The entire profit picture is defined by the exit maneuver.
There are several ways to unwind this position for a profit, but no chance
to unwind for a profit if the market goes down. The plan is for the SPX to go up
but not too far before closing the position.
"T.M." will not want to let the 04Dec1100 and the 05Jun1100 calls
go "deep in the
money" because the long and the short will converge.
Even if the "Time Meister" fell asleep at the wheel
and this did happen,
the six month spread delta and almost sixteen months until expiration of the nearer
of the two calls assures that the SPX has time to swing back down to 1100
and then the delta between the prices of the two calls will expand to
be at least the $15 that "T.M." has in it now.
It will be difficult to follow the end game for "Time Meister" because the time
during which the unwinding will take place is between now and December 2004.
Hopefully the SPX will cross over the 1100 mark. At that point his options
should be in the thick of the trading and this is where "TM" will close his position.
It is hard to say when "TM" got out but the volumes support October 22,2004.
On this date the SPX closed at 1095.74. (The perfect place for "TM's" exit.)
If this is true then using the COB bid and ask numbers, "TM" made $730,000.
Bravo for the "Time Meister".
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